As the shirts say, Basketball Never Stops - and the NBA is no exception. The finals start in early June. Almost immediately after the trophy is hoisted, the draft is held in New York. Free agency begins shortly thereafter. Trades happen throughout this time span, and before you know it, teams are playing pre-season games.
So with the start of 2017-18 season imminent, what better time than now to look ahead to next summer's free agent market? But before we do that, let's take a look at this year's free agent market and how it compares to the largess of 2016.
A Quick Recap
The 2016 off-season will be remembered as a seminal event in NBA history. A large spike in the salary cap meant that almost every team suddenly found themselves with lots of cap space to sign free agents.
That space allowed the Warriors to sign Kevin Durant, a move that disrupted the entire competitive balance of the league and ignited this summer's migration of superstars. It also led other teams giving exorbitant contracts to middling players (Joakim Noah, Timofey Mozgov, Evan Turner, etc.) that will haunt them for the next couple of years.
With less cap space available than in 2016, the median of total contract money awarded this summer decreased by approximately 37% compared to those of last year.
So what does the free agent market look like in 2018?
Cap Space in 2018: An Interactive Visualization
The chart below shows the money that each team has committed to its players for the 2018 season (data courtesy of basketball-reference.com). Click on each team's bar to drill-down into how that money is distributed across the team's players. Click on the "Add Free Agents" text to see what each team's total salary would look like if they re-signed all their free agents at their previous year's salaries.
Observations
The Utah Jazz have some interesting choices to make. Free agents Derrick Favors and Rodney Hood project to demand more money than they are currently making (Hood especially). The Jazz have their bird rights, but how much will they be willing to spend? The answer to these tough questions will depend largely on how good the Jazz look this year.
What will the New Orleans Pelicans do with DeMarcus Cousins? Resigning Cousins might propel the Pelicans to the luxury tax, and I personally don't think the Pelicans will be good enough this year to warrant such a salary.
How much will the Milwaukee Bucks pay Jabari Parker? Behind the dramatic rise of the Greek Freak, the Bucks are just beginning to get good. When healthy, Parker is a rare talent, but he'll be recovering from his second ACL surgery. Definitely a situation worth keeping an eye on.
Will the Philadelphia 76ers go after anyone big? They will use some of their cap space on Joel Embiid and Robert Covington, but what will they do with the remainder? Is their tantalizing young core enough to attract a star?
Looking ahead to the 2018 off-season has only increased my excitement for this upcoming season. Let the games begin!